The New Middle East in Formation: Sovereignty, Deterrence, and Regional Order amid Israel's Gaza Campaign, the Iran Crisis, and Gulf Security Recalibration

Main Actors, Strategic Autonomy, and the Reordering of Regional Security

Abstract

This article defines the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East as a regional order in formation. It does not treat recent events as isolated crises. It argues that the region is being reorganized through the interaction of five pressures: Israel's prolonged military campaign in Gaza; the Iran crisis and the weaponization of maritime chokepoints; the erosion of confidence in external security guarantees; the return of middle powers; and the renewed centrality of the Palestinian question.

The central claim is that the Middle East is moving away from a hierarchy built around U.S. primacy, Arab-Israeli normalization, and Iran containment alone. It is entering a more fragmented order in which sovereignty, deterrence, humanitarian legitimacy, and strategic autonomy are all contested at the same time. The Israeli strike in Qatar is therefore not the core of the article. It is treated only as one revealing episode within a broader regional transformation.

The article gives special attention to the main actors shaping the emerging order: the United States, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, and international legal institutions. It argues that the new Middle East is not yet a stable system. It is a field of overlapping crises. Its future will depend on whether regional actors convert shock into diplomacy, or allow deterrence failures to widen into a more destructive confrontation